Global Macro in Three Charts
Today we dive into “Global Macro in Three Charts,” simplifying a noisy world into three crisp lenses: growth momentum, inflation dynamics, and financial conditions. Each perspective blends data, lived experience, and history, turning numbers into decisions that matter. Expect nuance, humility, and clear takeaways you can apply. Join the discussion, challenge our assumptions, and subscribe to receive updates as fresh data arrives and the story evolves with every policy shift, earnings season, and headline surprise.
Growth Signals Across Regions
Our first lens tracks real activity through purchasing managers’ surveys, industrial output, and high-frequency mobility indicators. Together they outline whether the global engine is humming or sputtering. A chart can compress months of headlines into a recognizable silhouette, revealing the cadence of expansions, pauses, and recoveries that often defy narratives but guide allocation with refreshing clarity and discipline.
Inflation and Cost Pressures
Our second lens separates core from headline, goods from services, and expectations from realized prices. Inflation began in goods, migrated to services, and now negotiates with wages and rents. The visual teaches patience: disinflation rarely travels in a straight line. Beneath the averages, dispersion matters, and that unevenness determines whether relief feels real across households and businesses.
Rates, Liquidity, and Financial Conditions
Yield Curves and Recession Signals
Curve inversions whisper caution, yet timing is notoriously slippery. The graphic compares depth and duration of inversion against prior cycles, helping separate noise from risk. In 2006 signals arrived early; in 2019 they were brief but prescient. Today, watch steepening: a bull steepener comforts; a bear steepener warns. Investors we speak with hedge duration not out of fear, but respect for historical asymmetries.
Dollar Liquidity and Cross-Border Flows
Dollar strength tightens global conditions by raising funding costs abroad and compressing commodity affordability. Our measure links the broad dollar, basis swaps, and reserve trends to show pressure points. A Latin American CFO described halting a bond deal after spreads widened with a single Fed communication. The chart clarifies when relief is real: dollar easing, improving swap markets, and rising risk appetite together.
Credit Spreads and Risk Appetite
Spreads condense complex narratives into one number: default expectations, growth fear, and liquidity premia. Our plot overlays investment-grade and high-yield, plus small-cap funding proxies, to detect micro stress before it scales. Remember the 2020 snapback when policy backstops compressed risk overnight? Today, dispersion across sectors matters more than the average. Stay curious about issuance windows and covenant quality, not just quoted yields.
Currencies, Trade, and Balance Sheets
External balances and exchange rates tell a candid story about competitiveness, savings, and risk tolerance. Our view connects trade flows, current accounts, and currency trends to corporate margins and consumer confidence. A single line for the dollar or euro can tilt entire supply chains. Read it as a mirror of policy credibility, energy exposure, and the world’s search for safe collateral.
Jobs, Productivity, and Demographics
Tight Labor Markets, Looser Edges
Openings outnumber seekers in many sectors, yet hours worked plateau and quit rates normalize. The chart captures this gentle loosening without collapse. A restaurant owner in Phoenix said applications finally outpace shifts available, easing scheduling stress. Watch part-time preference and temp hiring; they foreshadow wage moderation. Equilibrium emerges gradually, retreating from extremes while preserving consumer resilience built during prior hiring frenzies.
Automation and AI as a Supply Shock
Capital deepening through automation, software, and AI can lift productivity just as labor tightness peaks. The productivity line often lags investment by quarters, then jumps. A logistics firm saved miles with smarter routing, cushioning fuel spikes. Our lens connects these gains to disinflationary pressure without dismissing transitional pain. Skills training, diffusion speed, and regulation determine whether benefits compound broadly or remain concentrated.
Aging Societies and Migration Offsets
Aging lowers labor supply growth, raising equilibrium wages unless offset by migration and participation gains. The demographic slope is steady, but policy choices bend it. A healthcare network in Italy recruits abroad and digitizes paperwork to maintain coverage. Our chart links dependency ratios to growth potential, highlighting where immigration unlocks capacity. Inclusive labor markets transform headwinds into steady, manageable breezes.
All Rights Reserved.